An Amazon price prediction that treats Anthropic’s IPO paperwork as a larger version of June’s markup is reading the wrong line. Reuters reported on 29 September that the lab’s confidential prospectus commits Anthropic to spend $110 billion with Amazon between May 2026 and April 2036, “regardless of usage,” inside a $518 billion plan with six partners, about 80% of it non-cancelable. Five days earlier Anthropic signed an $11.6 billion, seven-year CPU contract with Akamai, expandable by another $9 billion, so the same week produced a floor under AWS and a side door around it. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) closed at $246.67 on 29 September, $6.87, or 2.7%, below the $253.54 close this column used on 14 September. From that print, FinanceFeeds’ 12-month range is a $325 bull case, a $280 base case and a $210 bear case.
The split with the 15 September column is deliberate. That piece led with a $190.4 billion carrying value and a $340 / $190 range, because the mark was doing more work in GAAP earnings than AWS was. The prospectus does not erase the asset. It itemises a minimum bill, and Akamai shows that CPU demand is contestable. Spread over ten years, $110 billion is $11 billion a year, about 6.5% of the $169 billion AWS run rate. The Akamai commitment is about $1.7 billion a year, and it is CPU rather than Trainium. One figure is a floor. The other is a leak. The range $325 / $280 / $210 cuts the bull case for the leak and raises the bear case for the floor, off the $246.67 close and 2027 adjusted earnings of $10.48.
Key facts: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN)
- AMZN closed at $246.67 on 29 September 2026, up 6.9% from the $230.82 close on 31 December 2025 and 13.2% below the $284.02 close on 3 August — Nasdaq historical prices, 29 Sep 2026
- Anthropic’s prospectus commits $110 billion to Amazon from May 2026 to April 2036, payable regardless of usage, and at least $111.1 billion to Google — Reuters, 29 Sep 2026
- The filing lays out at least $518 billion of spending with six partners over a decade, about 80% of it non-cancelable or due regardless of use — Reuters, 29 Sep 2026
- Akamai signed an $11.6 billion, seven-year CPU commitment with Anthropic, expandable by $9 billion, plus a warrant for up to about 5% of Akamai — Akamai, via GlobeNewswire, 24 Sep 2026
- Amazon and Google routed 47% of Anthropic’s 2025 sales, about $2.16 billion of nearly $4.6 billion, and collected roughly $351 million in distribution fees — Reuters, 29 Sep 2026
- 59 analyst targets average $329.54, with a $230 low and a $405 high; adjusted EPS is $8.15 for 2026 and $10.48 for 2027 — S&P Global via stockanalysis.com, 28 Sep 2026
- The same series shows a 2026 free-cash-flow figure of -$34.18 billion, against 2026 revenue of $828.49 billion — S&P Global via stockanalysis.com, 28 Sep 2026
What changed for Amazon stock in the last two weeks
The operating print has not changed since 30 July. Net sales were $200.6 billion, up 20%, and operating income was $27.5 billion, up 43%. AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 36.7%, a $169 billion annualized run rate, with backlog of $496 billion. Andy Jassy said 2026 cash capex would be about $220 billion, up from $200 billion on memory costs, and still short of 2026 and 2027 demand. FinanceFeeds covered that raise the next day. The papers since 15 September describe the customer, not a new quarter.
On 24 September Akamai said Anthropic had committed $11.6 billion over seven years for CPU workloads, expandable by $9 billion, plus a warrant for up to about 5% of Akamai at $111.33. About 2% vests now. Each further $3 billion vests about 1% more. Akamai will spend about $5.5 billion of capital and lift 2026 capex by about $1.7 billion, including for memory, with no 2026 revenue from the deal. The release is CPU. It does not cancel Trainium at AWS. It does contract a second supplier for work Amazon would rather keep.
On 29 September Reuters reported the prospectus: at least $518 billion with six partners over a decade, about 80% payable whether or not the capacity is used. The floors are $111.1 billion with Google, $110 billion with Amazon from May 2026 to April 2036, and $31.4 billion with Microsoft, together $252.5 billion. If spend falls short, the filing says Anthropic must pay Google the difference, and Reuters said the Amazon terms are similar. Do not stack the $110 billion on the $496 billion backlog. That book already held an Anthropic commitment Amazon had called more than $100 billion. The news is that the bill is now a named minimum. Amazon and Google also carried 47% of Anthropic’s 2025 sales, about $2.16 billion. AMZN closed at $249.67 on 25 September and $246.67 on 29 September.
We now believe we will spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026. The higher cost of memory pushing this number up from our prior estimate of about $200 billion. Even at that amount, we will still not have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026, and I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027, too.
Andy Jassy, Chief Executive Officer at Amazon, on the second-quarter earnings call, 30 July 2026.
Quick take: The new information is a floor and a leak at the same time. $110 billion with Amazon is contracted. $11.6 billion of CPU is going to Akamai.
How Amazon, AWS and the Street responded
Amazon has not issued a new capex guide or a comment on the filing. Reuters said the company declined. The last operating statement is the 30 July call: capacity short through 2027, demand already visible for 2028, and both AI and custom chips above a $25 billion run rate. Jassy’s line that AWS could become a trillion-dollar revenue business is a horizon. The 12-month question is whether $220 billion still holds at the third-quarter report, and whether the $110 billion minimum is earned inside AWS.
Since 15 September the Street has held targets, except at the floor. Alexander Haissl at Rothschild & Co Redburn maintained a Hold and a $230 target on 21 September, TipRanks reported. That print is now the low on a 59-target S&P Global panel. On 3 September the prior column’s panel had a $250 low and a $332.45 average across 42 targets. On 30 September stockanalysis.com showed an average of $329.54, a median of $330, a low of $230 and a high of $405, and a Strong Buy. The floor fell $20, to a Hold 6.8% under the close.
Jeffrey Wlodarczak at Pivotal Research kept a $333 Buy on 21 September. Ken Gawrelski at Wells Fargo kept a $338 Buy on 25 September, the session after Akamai. Mark Shmulik at Bernstein kept a $320 Buy on 28 September. Justin Post at Bank of America reiterated a $320 Buy on 14 September. None cut the target for the CPU contract or the take-or-pay language. A $320 to $338 cluster, with the shares near $247, still prices in June’s AWS acceleration.
FinanceFeeds’ $325 bull case sits in that cluster, $5 above Post and Shmulik and $4.54 under the $329.54 average. The Street’s centre is this column’s bull case, not its base. Haissl’s $230 stays a Street target, $20 above the bear case here. S&P Global’s adjusted EPS, on the same page as of 28 September, is $8.15 for 2026 and $10.48 for 2027, while 2026 net income is $140.10 billion. The net-income line still carries the Anthropic marks behind the $12.88 figure used on 15 September. This column’s multiple uses $10.48. At the close, AMZN is 30.3 times 2026 adjusted EPS and 23.5 times 2027.
Anthropic is advancing the AI revolution and we are thrilled they chose Akamai’s capabilities for building and operating AI infrastructure at scale.
Dr. Tom Leighton, co-founder and Chief Executive Officer at Akamai, in the company’s 24 September release.
Quick take: The Street average of $329.54 is a bull case wearing a consensus label. The only target under the close is Redburn’s $230 Hold.
Data, multiples and the scenario table
At $246.67, AMZN is up 6.9% in 2026 from the $230.82 year-end close and up 12.3% from $219.57 on 30 September 2025. Using 10,786,313,572 shares outstanding as of 22 July, the market value is about $2.66 trillion. The path since mid-September is a drift, from $258.45 on 21 September to $246.67 on 29 September, not a gap on the Akamai release.
S&P Global’s series, updated 28 September, puts adjusted EPS at $8.15 for 2026 and $10.48 for 2027, against 2026 net income of $140.10 billion and free cash flow of -$34.18 billion. Revenue is $828.49 billion this year and $948.22 billion next. The 15 September column’s $12.88 figure was the mark-inflated line, beside 2027 EPS of $10.40. The multiples below use $10.48. The cash outflow is why the base case stays under the Street average.
Each target is one multiple times $10.48. The bull case is 31.0 times, or $324.88, set at $325, up 31.8%. That rolls today’s 30.3 times 2026 adjusted multiple onto 2027, and it needs mid-30s AWS growth, capex held at $220 billion, and an IPO that does not puncture the stake. The base case is 26.7 times, or $279.82, set at $280, up 13.5%: a re-rating from 23.5 times, not a return to 30, because free cash flow stays negative and CPU demand has a second supplier. The bear case is 20.0 times, or $209.60, set at $210, down 14.9%. That is multiple compression if the IPO mark disappoints. It stays above the February close of $198.79 because a contractual floor makes a demand collapse the wrong story.
| Scenario | 12-month target | Vs $246.67 | Math on 2027 adjusted EPS ($10.48) | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $325 | +31.8% | 31.0 x $10.48 = $324.88 | 25% |
| Base | $280 | +13.5% | 26.7 x $10.48 = $279.82 | 50% |
| Bear | $210 | -14.9% | 20.0 x $10.48 = $209.60 | 25% |
A 25/50/25 weighting gives $273.75, 11.0% above the close. Named bank targets stay outside this table. The $329.54 average is about 15% above the $280 base because free cash flow is forecast to stay negative.
| Item | 15 September column | This column |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $253.54 (14 Sep close) | $246.67 (29 Sep close) |
| Bull / base / bear | $340 / $290 / $190 | $325 / $280 / $210 |
| Earnings used | 2027 EPS $10.40, beside a 2026 figure of $12.88 | 2027 adjusted EPS $10.48; 2026 adjusted EPS $8.15 |
| Lead fact | Stake carried at $190.4 billion | $110 billion take-or-pay, plus Akamai’s $11.6 billion |
| Street low | $250 | $230, Redburn Hold |
Quick take: On adjusted 2027 earnings the shares already trade at 23.5 times. This Amazon price prediction’s base case is a modest re-rating, not a new business.
The capital-structure tension behind the AWS backlog
Anthropic’s minimum is an asset in Amazon’s backlog and a liability on Anthropic’s books. The lab lost more than $8 billion from operations in 2025 on under $4.6 billion of revenue. If usage falls short, the difference is still owed, which helps AWS only if Anthropic can pay. Cash and short-term investments at the end of 2025 were $20.28 billion, against a decade of minimums. The bridge is the IPO and money already invested by Amazon, Google and others.
The stake was carried at $190.4 billion on 30 June, per Amazon’s Form 10-Q. A cheaper listing would hit other income the way the $50.5 billion second-quarter gain lifted it. The filing already flags a lock-up, so a public price tests the mark without producing cash on day one. Long-term debt was $128.9 billion at 30 June, up from $65.6 billion at the end of 2025. The build is still $220 billion, funded with operating cash and debt, while a private valuation does heavy work in GAAP earnings.
Reuters quoted the prospectus on the overlap: Amazon, Google and Microsoft are each investor, customer, cloud provider, distributor and competitor, with incentives that “may not be fully aligned” with Anthropic’s. Distribution fees of about $351 million in 2025 were the platforms’ cut on $2.16 billion of marketplace sales. Akamai copied the equity-for-capacity shape, with a warrant for up to about 5%. A second supplier on that trade does not break AWS. It is another reason the circularity gets discounted when the cycle turns.
Power sits beside the contracts. The House passed the Ratepayer Protection Act 417-3 on 16 September, as FinanceFeeds reported, so large data-center loads pay their own grid costs. Amazon’s 20-year Vistra offtake, up to 1,200 megawatts from Comanche Peak from late 2027, is one way AWS has tried to lock power outside that fight, set out here on 8 September. Reuters also reported on 15 September, and FinanceFeeds detailed, that AWS could not restore some data in Bahrain and one UAE zone after Iranian strikes. A class action filed on 18 September, covered separately, alleges a coordinated slowdown of frontier models.
Quick take: A take-or-pay clause helps AWS only if the customer can pay. Anthropic’s 2025 operating loss was larger than its revenue, and the cash pile was $20.28 billion.
What happens next, and what would move the range
Three paths follow from documents that now exist. Each one moves a different part of the range.
First, the third-quarter report, due in late October. Management’s guide is sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. If AWS growth holds at or above the second quarter’s 36.7% and backlog steps up from $496 billion, the $110 billion minimum is being absorbed into a larger book, and the base case moves toward $300. The mechanism is the multiple: 28.6 times $10.48 is about $300. If AWS growth slips under 30% while cash capex stays at $220 billion, the Akamai contract looks less like a side door and more like the start of a split, and the base case moves toward $250, about 23.9 times the same earnings figure.
Second, the listing. InvestmentNews, citing Reuters, said sources expect the offering after the November midterms, and Anthropic declined to comment. Reuters has also reported a sought valuation near $2 trillion. That would test a stake carried at $190.4 billion. It would not make the stake worth an unpublished percentage of $2 trillion. The 10-Q does not state a clean ownership share. A price that confirms the carrying value supports $325. A delay past year-end, or a value nearer the $965 billion May round, is the path to $210, through the income statement. FinanceFeeds set out that $2 trillion pitch in August.
Third, capex. Jassy has already added $20 billion to the 2026 figure on memory, and Akamai is adding about $1.7 billion of its own for the same parts. If Amazon’s next update goes above $220 billion without a matching backlog increase, the -$34.18 billion free-cash-flow figure gets worse and 26.7 times is too rich. If the guide holds, the bull case stops at 31 times 2027 adjusted earnings. That is the top of this Amazon price prediction, not a return to $340.
FAQ
What is the Amazon price prediction for the next 12 months?
FinanceFeeds’ Amazon price prediction from the 29 September 2026 close of $246.67 is a $280 base case, up 13.5%, a $325 bull case, up 31.8%, and a $210 bear case, down 14.9%, weighted 50/25/25. The probability-weighted value is $273.75. The call uses 2027 adjusted consensus earnings of $10.48 a share. It is a scenario range, not a recommendation to buy or sell the shares.
Why did the targets change from the 15 September call?
The 15 September column used $340, $290 and $190 off a $253.54 close. This update cuts the bull case by $15 and the base case by $10, and raises the bear case by $20. The prospectus disclosed a $110 billion Amazon minimum that the old bear case did not have in public form, while the Akamai CPU contract shows some demand can be placed outside AWS. The share price is also $6.87 lower than the old reference.
How much has Anthropic promised to spend with Amazon?
The confidential prospectus, as reported by Reuters on 29 September 2026, says Anthropic plans to spend $110 billion with Amazon between May 2026 and April 2036 regardless of usage. Similar terms apply to at least $111.1 billion owed to Google. With Microsoft’s $31.4 billion, the three cloud minimums add to $252.5 billion. Spread evenly, the Amazon piece is about $11 billion a year, or roughly 6.5% of the current AWS run rate.
What do Wall Street analysts expect for AMZN?
S&P Global data on stockanalysis.com, checked on 30 September 2026, showed 59 analysts with a Strong Buy consensus and an average target of $329.54. The median was $330, the low $230 and the high $405. Rothschild & Co Redburn’s Alexander Haissl sits at the low, with a Hold and a $230 target as of 21 September. Those are Street targets. They are separate from the FinanceFeeds bull, base and bear cases above.
Is Amazon’s free cash flow negative?
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow was an outflow of $7.6 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2026. The S&P Global series on stockanalysis.com shows a 2026 free-cash-flow figure of -$34.18 billion. Cash capex for 2026 is guided to about $220 billion, up from about $200 billion, on higher memory costs and more capacity. That gap is why the $280 base case stays below the $329.54 Street average even after a 37% AWS quarter.
Disclaimer: This article is analysis, not investment advice. Price scenarios are illustrative, based on public filings, company statements and market data available on 30 September 2026, and are not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Equity investments can lose money, including the entire amount invested.
